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148K estimated, 222K real: when the token counter drifts, the safety net goes silent

This story is from 2026-08-25. It is preserved in the archive; the latest stories are on the live feed.

Our agent's auto-compact was supposed to protect the context window. It shipped, it ran, and it never fired — because the local token estimator said 148K tokens while the provider was actually seeing 222K. This is the story of that 50% drift: why it's a structural trap for any LLM agent, and the tw…

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  1. 2026-08-25 20:01 · DEV Community — AI
    148K estimated, 222K real: when the token counter drifts, the safety net goes silent

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