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Backtest 63.7%, production AUC 0.51 - a postmortem

This story is from 2026-09-05. It is preserved in the archive; the latest stories are on the live feed.

Originally published at nbaproplab.com/learn/model-postmortem . A model that looks excellent offline and random in production is usually blamed on the serving code. Ours was not: the two computations matched to 2e-16. The cause was a calibration snapshot whose export query nobody wrote down. What w…

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  1. 2026-09-05 23:07 · DEV Community — Machine Learning
    Backtest 63.7%, production AUC 0.51 - a postmortem

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