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Counterfactual Fragility Certificates: Exposing High-Confidence Brittleness under Structured Evidence Failure

This story is from 2026-09-02. It is preserved in the archive; the latest stories are on the live feed.

arXiv:2609.00366v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High test accuracy and good aggregate calibration do not show whether an individual prediction is structurally supported by its evidence. In tabular decision systems, failures often occur when a feature family becomes unavailable, delayed, noisy, stal…

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  1. 2026-09-02 04:00 · arXiv cs.LG
    Counterfactual Fragility Certificates: Exposing High-Confidence Brittleness under Structured Evidence Failure

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