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Does Better Prediction Actually Make You Money in Prediction Markets?

This came up in Chinese AI developer communities recently, sparked by a new paper from Gu, Kagan, Sun, Wu, and Xu (arXiv:2607.06166v3) titled When do prophets profit in prediction markets? The question sounds simple. The answer will cost you if you assume it is. Here is the failure mode that matter…

Read the full story at DEV Community — Machine Learning ↗

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  1. 2026-10-20 06:05 · DEV Community — Machine Learning
    Does Better Prediction Actually Make You Money in Prediction Markets?

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