Explicit Asymptotic Bounds for Sequential Calibration Beyond $T^{2/3}$
arXiv:2610.07623v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probability forecasts are calibrated when predicted probabilities match empirical outcome frequencies: among events assigned a probability $p$, we'd hope that the fraction of positive outcomes is close to $p$. We study the problem of sequential foreca…
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- 2026-10-07 04:00 · arXiv stat.ML
Explicit Asymptotic Bounds for Sequential Calibration Beyond $T^{2/3}$