Forecasting Associations, Not Interventions: A Preregistered Causal Audit of Covariate-Aware Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv:2610.31869v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Covariate-aware time series foundation models (TSFMs) accept a future path for a control variable and return a forecast, inviting what-if queries. The query is interventional; the models are trained on observational data. We determine whether their an…

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1. 2026-10-26 04:00 · arXiv cs.LG
   Forecasting Associations, Not Interventions: A Preregistered Causal Audit of Covariate-Aware Time Series Foundation Models