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How to score LLM forecasts honestly: our Claude Opus swarm vs Polymarket, resolved

Two weeks ago we posted forecasts from a MiroFish agent swarm running on Claude Opus 5.5, from Opus, Sonnet and Haiku asked directly, and from wallet positioning data, on four live Polymarket markets. Every number was pushed to GitHub before any market resolved. All four have now resolved, and the…

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  1. 2026-11-07 10:09 · DEV Community — AI
    How to score LLM forecasts honestly: our Claude Opus swarm vs Polymarket, resolved

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