How Wrong Can a Good Predictor Be? Diverging Updates with Vanishing Predictive KL
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arXiv:2609.11132v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate posterior prediction need not require accurate approximation of Bayesian updates. We prove that an unbounded gap between the update maps can coexist with vanishing predictive KL for every fixed finite $K\ge2$ in a stationary symmetric Gauss…
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- 2026-09-11 04:00 · arXiv stat.ML
How Wrong Can a Good Predictor Be? Diverging Updates with Vanishing Predictive KL