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I tried to Dutch-book 26 LLM forecasters. Asked one question at a time, every one of them paid out.

This is a submission for the Kaggle Benchmarking Challenge . What I Benchmarked I run a bot in Metaculus' AI forecasting tournament. Like almost every forecasting bot, it sends each question to the model in a fresh chat . That made me wonder: when the same event shows up from two angles, "Will the…

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  1. 2026-10-11 19:20 · DEV Community — Machine Learning
    I tried to Dutch-book 26 LLM forecasters. Asked one question at a time, every one of them paid out.

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