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Is a 10x Jump Always a 10x Jump? A Statistical Audit of the METR Time-Horizon Plot

If you follow AI progress, you have seen the METR plot: a line on a log axis showing that the length of software tasks AI systems can complete keeps growing exponentially. A new paper from two Berkeley statisticians, On the estimation and validity of AI time horizons (Nguyen and Fithian, October 20…

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  1. 2026-10-09 11:20 · DEV Community — Machine Learning
    Is a 10x Jump Always a 10x Jump? A Statistical Audit of the METR Time-Horizon Plot

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