METR's Ryan Greenblatt estimates AI is now speeding up AI by 4.5x. This is 5 months earlier than even AI 2027 predicted. "I was seriously wrong about RSI speed up ... This is a big update towards ASI within 1-2 years."
Ryan Greenblatt tweet: This report on AI R&D automation (RSI) is a big update towards ASI within 1-2 years. It says AI progress is sped up by RSI right now by around 2x. In AI 2027, this happens around March 2027. I was seriously wrong about RSI speed up; I previously expected much less in 2026 (ar…
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