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My AI Trading Bot Looked Profitable. Every Number That Said So Was the Wrong Number.

Five ways a prediction-market model fooled me, and the one metric I trust now For five months I ran an LLM-powered forecaster against real prediction markets: Kalshi and Polymarket. It researched a market, estimated a probability, compared it with the price, and logged a "shadow" bet whenever it di…

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  1. 2026-11-06 02:41 · DEV Community — Machine Learning
    My AI Trading Bot Looked Profitable. Every Number That Said So Was the Wrong Number.

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