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My betting model looked great for 3,671 predictions. It never beat the bookmaker.

For 16 days I logged every probability my sports-betting model announced before a match, and what actually happened afterwards: 3,671 settled predictions. By the usual numbers, it looked good: Brier score 0.1629 (lower is better) 30.8 % better than predicting the base rate every time Calibration er…

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  1. 2026-11-02 17:59 · DEV Community — Machine Learning
    My betting model looked great for 3,671 predictions. It never beat the bookmaker.

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