On the estimation and validity of AI time horizons---a statistical look at the METR plot
arXiv:2610.12466v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: METR's 50\% time horizon measures the human completion time of software tasks that an AI solves with 50\% probability, allowing AI capabilities to be expressed in interpretable units. On 228 tasks and 26 AIs, we recompute the time horizons using spl…
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- 2026-10-12 04:00 · arXiv stat.ML
On the estimation and validity of AI time horizons---a statistical look at the METR plot