Our air-quality forecasting model lost to a zero-parameter baseline — here's the rigor-first pipeline we built after finding that out
While building a wearable air-quality forecasting system, we discovered that at a 1-hour horizon, a zero-parameter "persistence" rule (predict no change) scored 0.7933 macro-F1 — and our trained RandomForest only reached 0.7994. A 0.006 gain. That sent us down a rabbit hole. We rebuilt the entire e…
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- 2026-09-29 05:08 · r/learnmachinelearning
Our air-quality forecasting model lost to a zero-parameter baseline — here's the rigor-first pipeline we built after finding that out