Press X to Doubt Eval: I told 14 AI models it's September 2026 and showed them 20 things that actually happened this year without websearch. On average they gave reality a 36% chance.
I have noticed a trend that AI sucks at predicting its own progress. Every time I described something that had actually happened in the last couple of months with websearch disabled, it gave me a beautifully reasoned explanation of why that was probably a 2027 or 2028 thing. Over and over. It was w…
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