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Similar Models, Broken Odds: Where Luce's Axiom Fails in Chatbot Arena

arXiv:2610.19095v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Chatbot Arena ranks language models with the Bradley-Terry model, which gives each model one score and so assumes Luce's choice axiom. Choice theory predicts where this fails: near-copies are told apart more decisively than their scores imply. On 1.8…

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  1. 2026-10-15 04:00 · arXiv cs.CL
    Similar Models, Broken Odds: Where Luce's Axiom Fails in Chatbot Arena

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