The Backstop That Listens: Regime Triggers and the Expectations Channel
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Fat Tail Notes · Part 13 · V10-P2 Part 12 built the backstop clock: backstop = f(trigger, lag, coverage, object) , calibrated on March 2020, and ended with an explicit debt. Two things the fixed-lag version could not do: The Fed does not arrive on a calendar. It arrives when the regime is confirmed…
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- 2026-09-19 01:14 · DEV Community — AI
The Backstop That Listens: Regime Triggers and the Expectations Channel