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The Credibility Line: Why Rules Survive Only Where Overrides Are Seen

This story is from 2026-10-06. It is preserved in the archive; the latest stories are on the live feed.

Part 24 of the Fat Tail Notes series — the price of breaking a promise. The hook Part 23 priced the policy loophole and found the cliff: a 10% exemption expectation eats 64% of the backstop's damage. But that model treated the exemption rate p as something the market just expects . This part asks t…

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  1. 2026-10-06 06:43 · DEV Community — AI
    The Credibility Line: Why Rules Survive Only Where Overrides Are Seen

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