Towards Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasts for Events of Interest via Outcome-Conditional Recalibration
arXiv:2610.10076v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Calibration is an essential requirement for probabilistic predictions to be useful for decision making. While state-of-the-art prediction methods often yield miscalibrated predictive distributions, several post-hoc recalibration schemes have been prop…
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- 2026-10-08 04:00 · arXiv stat.ML
Towards Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasts for Events of Interest via Outcome-Conditional Recalibration