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When a High Score Is an Illusion: Certifying Genuine versus Repackaged Forecasting Skill

This story is from 2026-09-18. It is preserved in the archive; the latest stories are on the live feed.

arXiv:2609.19223v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ranks depend on the observations used for comparison. Reusing those observations can add association between forecast and outcome rank contrasts even when the evaluated forecast and outcome stay fixed. We characterize assignments that preserve assoc…

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  1. 2026-09-18 04:00 · arXiv stat.ML
    When a High Score Is an Illusion: Certifying Genuine versus Repackaged Forecasting Skill

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