Why Naive Pricing Breaks on Correlated Combo Contracts (And How Copulas Fix It)
This story is from 2026-09-17. It is preserved in the archive; the latest stories are on the live feed.
Parlays, same-game combos, multi-leg prediction market — anywhere you can combine two event contracts into one, there's a pricing problem lurking underneath: how do you price the combo when the two legs aren't independent? Most naive approaches just multiply the individual probabilities together. I…
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- 2026-09-17 14:53 · DEV Community — Machine Learning
Why Naive Pricing Breaks on Correlated Combo Contracts (And How Copulas Fix It)