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When Should Forecasting Agents Reason? Behavioral Stress Tests for Reliability Routing

arXiv:2609.28475v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting agents increasingly combine language-model reasoning, retrieval, ensembling, and calibration, but it remains unclear when each behavior should be trusted. We study this question on ForecastBench-style binary forecasting tasks, treating the…

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  1. 2026-09-25 04:00 · arXiv cs.AI
    When Should Forecasting Agents Reason? Behavioral Stress Tests for Reliability Routing

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